This game is pivotal for both Italy and France, with Italy looking to stave off relegation and France pushing for a playoff berth.
Despite their differing objectives, both teams have shown a pattern of drawing matches—Italy has drawn six of their last 12 home games at this level, while France has maintained a strong standing in the UEFA Nations League.
Though Italy is recognized for its offensive play, recent stats show that 18 of their last 20 UEFA Nations League fixtures have ended with three or fewer goals.
France’s games have followed a similar trend, with 19 of their previous 20 also staying under the 3.5-goal mark, suggesting a similar outcome when these two meet.
Italy has consistently both scored and conceded across their last 11 top-level matches, and France has shown similar tendencies, with both teams scoring in five of their last six games. This trend indicates that clean sheets may be unlikely.
Prediction
While France has recorded wins in previous encounters, their last 39 top-flight away matches have all stayed under the three-goal mark.
Italy’s recent Nations League games have followed this trend as well, with all of their last 24 matches remaining below the 3.5-goal threshold, making a low-scoring game highly probable.
Prediction: Italy 1 – 1 France
